Comparative study between Altman Z-Score and Ohlson O-score in predicting bankruptcy as applied in Airline Industry in the Philippines / Niza, May Angela D., Trinidad, Abegail M., Martin, Laila Mae D., Arboleda, Rosielyn C., Bumatay, Paeavel Kate G. Dela Cruz, Shara Mae B., Jabonete, Jessa Mae J., Lumanog, Portia L., Reodique, Robel Mae S., Sayo, Cassandra. 6

Research Paper: (BSBA major in Finance and Treasury Management) - Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Maynila, 2016. 56

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ABSTRACT: The ability to predict the financial status of a firm for the upcoming years plays an important role for the businesses as it helps them to be ready for the unexpected changes in the flow of their operation. This theory has pointed its way towards the predictive models. Altman Z-Score and Ohlson O-Score. However, these tools cannot specifically state the position of the firm, but rather the possibility of them to encounter financial distress. This study is intend to compare the ability of the two models, Altman Z-Score and Ohlson O-Score, regarding the query of determining which of the two is more accurate in forecasting bankruptcy among the selected airlines in the Philippines. Financial statements from 2005 to 2014 are used, and served as basis in the determination of their financial performances for the subsequent years. This research paper's decided locale us the top five (5) performing domestic airlines out of 7 in the Philippines. The data were obtained from the distinguished Accounting/Treasury and Operations Division Managers of the airlines. The researchers were able to obtain data from the 4 operations division managers of PAL Express. For accounting/treasury managers, the breakdown of the obtained data is: 1 for Cebu Pacific Air. 4 for Philippine Airlines and 1 for AirAsia. These data were used as subject for the computation of weighted mean which was used to determine the weight that the factors contribute to the overall quantity and which the researchers associated with the predictive models, Altman Z-score and the Ohlson O-score models. With the use of stepwise method, Pearson product-moment correlation and One Way Anova the comparison of their predictive abilities were determine. Thus, the research's hypotheses were resolved. The two models are found to be having a significant difference with each other as provided by the One Way Anova results. The O-score's factors do not have a significant difference with the Z-score's factors, on the other hand, have a significant difference with the O-scores. Therefore, it is concluded at the end of this study that the Altman Z-score has a higher capability of predicting bankruptcy than the Ohlson O-score. Furthermore, studies about other predictive models are strongly recommended in order to provide additional guidance for the decision-makers and other interested persons who are in the dilemma of selecting the best predictive model to use. In addition, it is also recommended that this research study be used as a supplementary data that may assist the future researchers concerned for the country's business literacy.

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