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099 _aERD-TN Box no. 1 : Number 2
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_aRayner, Nigel.
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_aIntegrating risk into ADB's economic analysis of projects.
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_aManila :
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_bAsian Development Bank,
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_aERD Technical Note Series.
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_aABSTRACT : Current practice suggests that project economic analysis can be strengthened through the use of quantitative risk analysis to investigate the effect on project outcomes of the expected range and distribution of values for key project parameters. The heightened focus on poverty reduction, which raises the profile of the poor's vulnerability and exposure to risk, also suggests that poverty analysis can be improved through the use of risk-oriented techniques. The opportunity to improve practice in this area of project economic analysis is offered by the existence of dedicated and easy-to-use software packages for risk analysis. To assist in better integrating risk analysis in project economic analysis, the paper provides a summary of key principles, ways in which risk analysis can be employed specifically to address poverty reduction objectives, and a summary of typical risk circumstances on a sector-by-sector basis.
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_aEconomic research.
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_aLagman-Martin, Anneli.;Ward, Keith.
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