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_a _aRegime-Switching Business Cycle Synchronization in the ASEAN _d _b _n _c _h6 _p |
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_a _aAbstract: This paper investigates patterns of business cycle synchronization and analyzes the underlying common factors in six ASEAN countries, that is, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Two important findings result. First, according to resulting regime probabilities calculated from the Markov-switching model, Singapore is not synchronized with other ASEAN members, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are highly correlated. Second, according to the principal component analysis, we find that the world's import value growth, the output growth of China, and the capital flow of Singapore are most likely to account for 88% of variation in probabilities of the ASEAN being in the contraction regime. _d _b _c56 |
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_x _x _aBUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION;ASEAN _d _b _zREGIME -SWITCHING MODEL;PRINCIPAL COMPONENT _y _2sears;sears0 _v |
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_i _i _t _c _b _s1 _q _f _k40 _p _d _e _aYuthana Sethapramote and Athakrit Thepmongkol _l _n6 |
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_b _b _t _c _e _f _k40 _p _d5 _l _n6 _aDLSU Business & economic Review. 27:2 (January 2018). pp 75-87 |
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